Financial "Crisis" in Greece

I found this video hilarious! Since as I already said I think we are about to go over the cliff, at least this video gets some laughs.

Our disposable culture

I follow elephantjournal.com and found this post today:

cloth-vs-disposable-and-the-use-of-water

It makes the argument that the accepted disposable diapers save water is incorrect since refining petroleum also requires water. And the fact is that water usage is not the key factor since it is re-newable where as petroleum is limited resource.

I also thought the augment in favor of disposables was also the energy and water use required for cleaning and drying reusable diapers. I agree that the disposable expends non-reusable resources in production and then takes up space in a landfill if it doesn't end up in the ocean. I refer anyone to search the "pacific plastic patch" or check out my post .

We must start considering all costs- especially the hidden costs of disposable goods. We must change. I also recommend "the story of stuff". It really has changed the way I think about spending my money and the products I buy.

I don't know what the future will bring, but I know we must change. Given our failing (or failed) economy, we need a future system that is not so centered on endless consumption of limited expendable resources.  A part of that is changing our disposable is good mindset.  We became so centered on economic growth we never considered the consequences.

Another thing that never should have fallen in disfavor is using the sun (when available) to dry clothes.

I have been busy with work and school (I am now in graduate school) so my blogging time is in short supply, but as always you comments are welcome and I will do my best to respond.

Frank

The inevitable Collapse

Niall Ferguson: Will Debt Trigger US Collapse?

This layes it out in a very straight forward manner of where we are heading.  While the republicans and democrats are deadlock we continue to overspend.  

Unintended Consquences: You never know everything.

 
I have another partially written blog post about this that I don't have time to finish right now, but I don't see a reason not to share this now.
 
A quick summary on unintended consquences: they can be both good or bad.  I do not think this is a reason not to attempt something- but it is something to always be aware of.
 

More Lefty fun facts

Did you know that Pythagoras was left-handed? So reports Catriona Byrne in Math Intelligencer. She also writes that left-handers are more represented among mathematicians than amoung a random population sample.

I have previously mentioned how most of my room-mates have been left handed (well over 60%) and how I notice a higher percentage of left-handers in risk/reliability analysis.  So there is something to hand-dominance and thought.  I also remember reading that there is a part of the brain that controls conformity with another part that controls rebellious (sorry, I feel like there is a better word, but I am at a loss). Further that recent studies left-handers have more activity in the rebellious area and less in conformity area.  Is it possible we are wired to our reactions to new ideas and we evolved as a race to have a majority of people who conform to maintain a status-quo with a small percentage of people wired to always move against the flow and try new things.  I believe it is.  Given how many problems we face as a race and the majority of the reason things are is "that's the way we have always done them" from our perspectives within our life time.  Actually, we have experience more change in the last 100 years than in the last 10,000.  And that rate of change is increasing.  I just hope we are will to change fast enough before a collapse forces us to change.

A Whole new mind: Part II

I am about two-thirds the way through A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future.  I really am enjoying this book and the author is referencing quite a few other books that I have read including: Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships, Emotional Intelligence: 10th Anniversary Edition; Why It Can Matter More Than IQ and http://face.paulekman.com/products.aspx.


The first part the author makes argument how this have changed and will change in the future.  He makes a compelling argument about the reason of job exports to Asia. As someone who alway decried the erosion of America's manufacturing base and felt government and corporations were short sighted in allowing it to happen I am now changing my attitude and not that I am for it- I do feel many mistakes were made in the last few decades, but I now have the perspective of how ineviable it was. 

The author further talks about how knowledge works (engineers, lawyers, programmers, mostly left-brain careers, etc.) have begun and will quickly more to Asia and then be replaced by computer automation.

His direction is that it will be combining left brain logically activatives with right brain creative activities for future productivity.  For example, Japan- the traditional left brain logical based ecomonies biggest export is now pop-culture (another head smack!).

Just a few quick thoughts for now on a book I would already recommend that I picked up via Amazon.com picks.

Also, I do not take a lot of time to proof-read- and I am awful at grammar- so if I miss something I apologize.

Jeff King at http://authorsunion.blogspot.com/, a blog I love- posed a question a few weeks ago asking our biggest faults- which after thinking about it I first thought focus, but I realized it was actually procrastination.  I have 30 drafted blog posts that are not published because they are incomplete.  I also didn't get to comment on his blog since I am having some kind of issue.  So, as a note I wanted throw a shout out thank you to Jeff.

Anyway, thanks for reading!  And I would love to know what you think.

Frank

A whole new mind

I just started reading A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future.  So far I am really enjoying it and it supposes to define how we can integrate left-brain logical thinking with right-brain creativity ability as our jobs change in the future.  While I am only in the first third of the book I wanted to get a excellent points from the book up here.


The left hemisphere analyzes the details;
The right hemisphere synthesizes the big picture


Or put another way of the ancient Greeks: The Hedgehog and the Fox: The fox knows many things; the hedgehog knows one big thing.  The left side is a fox; the right side is the hedgehog.


It details how left-brain thinking has dominated in the last century and how thing are changing.  Both side must work together for success in the future.  So far the author makes some excellent points and I am excited to finish the book. Things are obviously changing rapidly and they are system changes which our current system is not capable of implementing- so these necessary changes will be resisted. (Not sure I am getting my full thought on this- but

It is the second chapter which held some things I really wanted to share: Abundance, Asia, and Automation.


Self-storage- a business devoted to providing people a place to house their extra stuff- has become a $17 billion annual industry in the United States, larger than the motion picture industry. What's more, the industry is growing at an even faster rate in other countries.

The United States spends more on trash bags than ninety other countries spend on everything. In other words, the receptacles of our waste cost more than all of the goods consumed by nearly half the world's nations.


Those two statements blew me away.

Warren Buffet wants to pay more taxes: my tax idea- progressive flat tax

Ok, part of the problem is how complicated the tax codes are. There are loop holes that people will take advantage of along with the law of unintended consequences. You can refer to either the book or movie of “freakconomics” A flat progressive tax. I actually believe I read about a version of this in Lies and The Lying Liars Who Tell Them - A Fair and Balanced Look At The Right. The tax rate is paid at a graduated level on each portion of your income- just as an example-so lets say 5% on the first 20,000, 10% on up to 21,000-100,000, 20%- 200,000 etc.

For lets compare two people one making 40,000 and one make 175,000 (ignoring Social Security and states taxes).

Person 1: 40,000

$2,000 on the second $20,000

for total taxes of $3,000 and a net of $37,000Person 2: $175,000



would pay $1,000 on the first $20,000

$8,000 on the next $80,000

and then $15,000 on the final $75,000

for total taxes of $24,000 and a net of $151,000





Check out Malcom Gladwell video.

The tax rate used to be 90% for income of 2 million dollars (which would be about 15 million)

Encounter With Tiber by Buzz Aldrin & John Barnes

So Buzz Aldrin, the Apollo 11 astronaut, wrote a sic-fi book that was published way back in 1996.  In it he details a second Space Shuttle loss- this one dealing with a one engine out Trans-Atlantic (TAL) abort.  It also details the bailout procedure when a second engine out leads to Loss of Vehicle.  Interesting that he basically predicted a second Shuttle loss. He also details contact with alien life.  I just started reading it. My local library actually had a copy! But an early discussion really hit home:

"As the business magazines summarized it, Sig Jarlsbourg had concluded that at least half of the most respected industries, ones that could be counted on in any portfolio, had to be shut down within the next century, and proposed a radical plan for putting them out of business..."

This statement really hit home as I believe we are at the beginning of a system "reboot"

Never predict the limits of possibility.

“We must be able to transmit things from other places over long distances… pictures, the news, energy… why not matter too? We must liberate thought from its limitations imposed by space and time, and yet keep its characteristics. This will be possible in the next decades or centuries.” --Nikola Tesla

Technology is rapidly changing and while there is alway dangers inherent I still truly believe we will enter a new golden age. What is more distrubing is how many of our problems increased by our choice of in the direction of technology.

Black Swan Author on the coming economic crisis

I read The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable soon after it came out and it has dominated my thinking on our current world situation since.

I found two videos I think are very worthwhile to watch:

And further:

and finally:

The Stock Market is Gambling. Straight up- no lie. Perfect Example!

I have this as a draft for over two months, but this story cause me to publish:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/17/news/companies/abercrombie_jersey_shore/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

There is no better example of how broken the stock market is and how worried it should make you.  The solution is to decontruct it.  To much of our value is based on "stockholder" Opinion!


I do not care what complex math or modeling is used. Aside from the imperfect knowledge it is also an imperfect system. The feedback loops are just broken. Too much of a stocks value is based seemingly on “stock holder” opinion or collective intelligence (group intelligence) which is flawed. The easiest example is how quickly a stock price varies in relation to news that should have no effect. We have a complex system with bad feedback loops. I read recently that Berk-shire Hathway preformed better because Anne Hatheway hosted the Oscars- bringing web traffic to their site.

The rate of change is greater than ever before and rate of change itself is increasing in all aspects of our world. The system is becoming more virulent which of course means that more money can be made or loss faster than ever before. Day traders and computer purchases have destroyed the feedback loop. This is a system that is vunerable to a massive failure.

My solution is to remove myself as much as possible from the stock market. I think we are in line for another “dip” or significant drop in the overall stock market.

The system will not survive as it exists now (I know that is a weak prediction- I will make no others). My point is that no matter what you may think you know, unless you have insider trading or are on the inside (like a broker who makes money on the stock sale) it is a straight up gamble and further the vitility is increasing.

Accept that you are gambling or my advice--- stay out!

More information on Plastic: Toxic Love Story

I have not read this book, but I plan to.  Let me clear if I was not in my earlier post.  I am not anti-plastic, but I do feel it should not be used in disposible items and it is the intentional design/implementation of plastic that is producing this problem.




Plastic from Han on Vimeo.

The plastic problem: The pacific plastic patch-- most important post!

I am including two videos below about the pacific plastic patch.  The first one is short and gives an introduction to the problem.  Plastic (or more technical polymers) are amazing in that they are cheap, strong, lightweight and just have some excellent properties.  Actually, its biggest advantage leads to the core problem- it is non-biodegrable.  I would state the problem more to its applications for disposable items.

This was only discovered in 2007.  This is a problem that has been building for decades.  I have been quoting to be people that it is the size of Texas and I was wrong- it is twice the size of Texas and growing.  And this is completely a manufactured problem.  This problem would be much smaller if we captured the full costs of reclaiming garbage.

From what I understand they have now also found a garbage patch in the atlantic ocean.  This is again a complex system problem that is more expensive and bigger than any one country is willing to front the expense on.

What makes me angry is how avoidable this problem would have been in the first place. I heard recently a California politician  lamenting a new law that would close down three plastic bag factories.  Well, I got news for you- they are should be shutdown.

I have talked about it before, but I will include it again:

and also:

Step 1) Carry reusable shopping bags and do not accept plastic bags.  I keep four in my car, but to be honest- I forget them sometimes.  Also, since I live in the city I usually take the train- if I have a bag I limit the plastic bags I use.

Step 2) Try to shop at stores that do not give plastic bags. The three I know are Ikea, Costco, and Trader Joe's (Trader Joe's actually will give paper bags or a raffle for a $25 gift certificate for every reusable bag you bring in).

This is only the beginning- spend your money at stores that at least make an effort to reduce or eliminate plastic bags. There is so much more to do- but we have to start somewhere.

Please forward and spread the word.  Also feel free to comment with other stores that do not give plastic bags or other ideas we can do as individuals to start on a solution to our plastic garbage problem.

Thanks for reading,

Frank

Complexity Example: Asia Stocks up and then down. US markets down then up.

So Asian market shot up initially as the debt ceiling deal was reached and today have dropped since of the United State stock performance from a “sell-off”. I put sell-off in quotes since that is an assumption and the system is too complex and too reactive so that feedback and feed forward loops are broken. We have built and rely on a system no one fully understands. My worry is about entering a long term depression. When most capital is controller by a few large mono-corporations and a small percentage of individuals we are exposed to a system crash risk. Now I cannot say for sure as fact that there will be a crash, but I believe it will happen. The solution is to start changes now. Reduce investment in the stock market and support small local business. Remove your money from large banks. Start you own small business. I do not know the full answer and this is certainly not definitive solutions, but we should at least start thinking and discussing about changing now.

Epic Fail: The slow sink into collapse.

A slow inevitable epic fall.

Unfortunately this image (I hope the motion is working) can also apply to our current world situation.  Will we have a fast drastic collapse or will we slow sink into the abyss and end up underneath a pile with our collect head in an oven.

System overload: How do I cure psoriasis?

So almost ten years ago I developed psoriasis or eczema- any of the doctors I went to see over the intervening years were never clear on which it was.  So I will just call it dermatitis. Accepted medicine and every doctor I have been too ignored any idea of a nutritionally basis for as the cause.  Every one prescribed a topical cream.  A few years ago it spread out two both my shins to a point where both we covered.  Over the year I tried many different things and the thing I found was the most effect was doing cleanses.  Basically I would do five days eating fruit and vegetables while taking carbon pills and another herbal supplement.  Anyway while it subsided I still have had a small patch for the last few years.

I am ready to really get it healed along with getting my weight under control.  A close friend is also having a problem with it and his doctor amazingly recommended what is essentially a Paleo diet.

This is the site I follow and the product I have used for my cleanse

herbdoc

Intestinal formula #1

Intestinal Formula #2

I usually buy one bottle of #1 and #2.  I'll post my protocol later.


Since we have been talking about it and I have been blogging more lately.  I figured I would document it here and see how another cleanse or two works.  As embarrassing as it is a lot of us are dealing with this problem.  Please feel free to comment anomonoously if you have your own experience or advice.

Thanks,

Trying to make some sense,
Frank

Making sense of our current situation

My last post with where I discuss current situation here in America with debt generated a comment on Facebook with someone "blaming" the current President. One of the super-mems detailed in The Watchman's Rattle: Thinking Our Way Out of Extinction is the personalization of blame.  She gives the example of our current obesity problem- it is obviously a system problem.  Is it more calories and less exercise? The root cause(s) are not obvious, but it is happening to more and more people everyday and it is a complex system problem.  I am not trying to claim a solution, but only the point is a system problem requires a system solution.

As a country we spend too much money.  Actually, I feel that our two biggest problems is how much of the stock markets' value is based on public opinion.  A simple story can have significant effects on a stocks, and therefore a companies, value- immediately.  Second, something like 40% (actually I just saw an article claiming 70%- way too high) of our economy is based on consumer spending-- which is us buying crap.  If you have not watched the videos on Thestoryofstuff.com, you need to. Also, our country spends too much and has been since the end of World War II.

So we have again raised the debt ceiling and politicians have made a big deal about reducing FUTURE spending increases-- NOT actually balancing expenses with revenues at any point.  Of course, we cannot blame Obama since he came into office during two wars and at the start of the financial collapse.  George Bush lead our country during a difficult time and had to defend us after we were attacked, locate weapons of mass destruction, and build democracy in the middle east.  Whatever, I am not a republican or democrat and the last two sentences probably upset both.  Let me continue, so Bush moved into office with a surplus budget and a few year without increasing expenses the debt would have been paid off (yeah, not sure if anyone remembers that).  Of course we were attacked and we had to respond (but hold off- cause we are still going backwards).  Now Clinton left office with that huge budget surplus so he looks golden other than his half ass attempts to get Bin Laden.  Of course we now know that large corporations may have also been cooking the books and the internet bubble was a part of that upswing.  Value on paper as opposed to real value as at least an equal part of the upswing.  Part was real value as the internet and other technologies have increased productivity-- a large part of why I think the next few years may be difficult but we will pull through to a better future.

So Billy C. became president as our economy was starting to recover from the short desert war and the fall of communism.  That brings us to GB I. after the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan we had an opportunity to help rebuild.  And we didn't take that opportunity.  And yes, I am taking this from seeing Charlie Wilson's War (Widescreen). Now this is a gross over-simplication, but the point is until to put politics aside and work towards real solutions while also realizing that we are all in this together.  Politics has not been about making progress or succeeding it has become making the other team lose.  We are far from a solution and I certainly can't foresee a definitive path.  Here is what I do know.  We need basic ideals.  Right now most people want to return to business as usual and most of the things have been done to add to the walls of a system with a crumbling foundation.  The top banks are getting bigger.  We need them to be smaller. (actually someone posted this earlier today on facebook: http://moveyourmoneyproject.org/) and this idea of "too big to fail" is garbage.  What it really is the Powers that be cannot accept the idea of a world where they do fail.  My response is misquoting Titanic "I assure you sir, she is made of iron-- she will sink".  We are within a system requires unsustainable growth and the momentum is increasing while its ability to change is decreasing.  The question I believe is can we change the system before it reaches that tipping point.  I believe we need to follow some fundamentals and start small.

Accidental Inventions: turning a problem into a solution.

This CNN article details a teenage invent who is working a true solution to a standard problem of the kudzu menace.

teen.scientist.kudzu.killer

I especially love that his experiment started out as a way to grow food on Mars.  What is basic, but also fundamental is how he is using trial an error to progress-- discussed in my post yesterday.  Starting out by using kudzu as a food source on Mars--what harms kudzu-- unique way to kill kudzu (Helium)-- developing skills -- also using kudzu as a food source. 

I have a real feeling we will be hearing more from Jacob Schindler in the future.

Well done, sir...

Debt ceiling- Bottom line

As much as I should avoid politics, this entire debt ceiling debate can be summed up quickly:  Without raising revenue or lowering expenses we are pushing the problem off to the next generation (and we have been for generations).  This is actually a big part of The Watchman's Rattle: Thinking Our Way Out of Extinction root cause of the failure of ancient Romans, Mayans, and Khmer civilizations failed.  Of course, we may be reaching the tipping point when the system collapses.


That's all the big money. That's where it is. It's not in some mythical waste fraud abuse. The bulk of the money is in Social Security, Medicare, the military, interest on the debt.--- “Fareed Zakaria GPS”