Cool math trick: Converting between miles and kilometers

taken from: http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/blogs/cool-math-trick-converting-between-miles-and-kilometers

Too great not to share:

The Fibonacci sequence is made up of numbers that are the sum of the previous two numbers in the sequence, starting with 0 and 1.



It's 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…


1 is 0+1, 2 is 1+1, 3 is 1+2, 5 is 2+3, and 8 is 3+5. The number after 144 is 233, or 89+144.

The Fibonacci number describes the golden spiral, an ideal form much beloved by designers everywhere. Interestingly, it also neatly matches the relationship between kilometers and miles. Three miles is five kilometers, five miles is eight kilometers, eight miles is 13 kilometers. It's not perfect, eight miles is actually 12.875 kilometers, but it's close enough in a pinch.

If you need to convert a number that's not on the Fibonacci sequence, you can just break out the Fibonacci numbers, convert, and add the answers. For instance, 100 can be broken down into 89 + 8 + 3, all Fibonacci numbers. The next numbers are 144, 13, and 5, which add up to 162. 100 miles is actually equal to 160.934. Again, close enough.

Math is cool.

How to tie your shoes

1) I have been tying my shoes wrong
2) A thousand mile journey starts with a single step.  The point that the speaker makes is true, to make large changes you need to start with small changes. It will be impossible to move forward and solve our many problems until we start with small changes.

Anyway, this is one of the earlier TED talks and it is great!

A whole new mind

I just started reading A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future.  So far I am really enjoying it and it supposes to define how we can integrate left-brain logical thinking with right-brain creativity ability as our jobs change in the future.  While I am only in the first third of the book I wanted to get a excellent points from the book up here.


The left hemisphere analyzes the details;
The right hemisphere synthesizes the big picture


Or put another way of the ancient Greeks: The Hedgehog and the Fox: The fox knows many things; the hedgehog knows one big thing.  The left side is a fox; the right side is the hedgehog.


It details how left-brain thinking has dominated in the last century and how thing are changing.  Both side must work together for success in the future.  So far the author makes some excellent points and I am excited to finish the book. Things are obviously changing rapidly and they are system changes which our current system is not capable of implementing- so these necessary changes will be resisted. (Not sure I am getting my full thought on this- but

It is the second chapter which held some things I really wanted to share: Abundance, Asia, and Automation.


Self-storage- a business devoted to providing people a place to house their extra stuff- has become a $17 billion annual industry in the United States, larger than the motion picture industry. What's more, the industry is growing at an even faster rate in other countries.

The United States spends more on trash bags than ninety other countries spend on everything. In other words, the receptacles of our waste cost more than all of the goods consumed by nearly half the world's nations.


Those two statements blew me away.

Encounter With Tiber by Buzz Aldrin & John Barnes

So Buzz Aldrin, the Apollo 11 astronaut, wrote a sic-fi book that was published way back in 1996.  In it he details a second Space Shuttle loss- this one dealing with a one engine out Trans-Atlantic (TAL) abort.  It also details the bailout procedure when a second engine out leads to Loss of Vehicle.  Interesting that he basically predicted a second Shuttle loss. He also details contact with alien life.  I just started reading it. My local library actually had a copy! But an early discussion really hit home:

"As the business magazines summarized it, Sig Jarlsbourg had concluded that at least half of the most respected industries, ones that could be counted on in any portfolio, had to be shut down within the next century, and proposed a radical plan for putting them out of business..."

This statement really hit home as I believe we are at the beginning of a system "reboot"

Never predict the limits of possibility.

“We must be able to transmit things from other places over long distances… pictures, the news, energy… why not matter too? We must liberate thought from its limitations imposed by space and time, and yet keep its characteristics. This will be possible in the next decades or centuries.” --Nikola Tesla

Technology is rapidly changing and while there is alway dangers inherent I still truly believe we will enter a new golden age. What is more distrubing is how many of our problems increased by our choice of in the direction of technology.

System overload: How do I cure psoriasis?

So almost ten years ago I developed psoriasis or eczema- any of the doctors I went to see over the intervening years were never clear on which it was.  So I will just call it dermatitis. Accepted medicine and every doctor I have been too ignored any idea of a nutritionally basis for as the cause.  Every one prescribed a topical cream.  A few years ago it spread out two both my shins to a point where both we covered.  Over the year I tried many different things and the thing I found was the most effect was doing cleanses.  Basically I would do five days eating fruit and vegetables while taking carbon pills and another herbal supplement.  Anyway while it subsided I still have had a small patch for the last few years.

I am ready to really get it healed along with getting my weight under control.  A close friend is also having a problem with it and his doctor amazingly recommended what is essentially a Paleo diet.

This is the site I follow and the product I have used for my cleanse

herbdoc

Intestinal formula #1

Intestinal Formula #2

I usually buy one bottle of #1 and #2.  I'll post my protocol later.


Since we have been talking about it and I have been blogging more lately.  I figured I would document it here and see how another cleanse or two works.  As embarrassing as it is a lot of us are dealing with this problem.  Please feel free to comment anomonoously if you have your own experience or advice.

Thanks,

Trying to make some sense,
Frank

Making sense of our current situation

My last post with where I discuss current situation here in America with debt generated a comment on Facebook with someone "blaming" the current President. One of the super-mems detailed in The Watchman's Rattle: Thinking Our Way Out of Extinction is the personalization of blame.  She gives the example of our current obesity problem- it is obviously a system problem.  Is it more calories and less exercise? The root cause(s) are not obvious, but it is happening to more and more people everyday and it is a complex system problem.  I am not trying to claim a solution, but only the point is a system problem requires a system solution.

As a country we spend too much money.  Actually, I feel that our two biggest problems is how much of the stock markets' value is based on public opinion.  A simple story can have significant effects on a stocks, and therefore a companies, value- immediately.  Second, something like 40% (actually I just saw an article claiming 70%- way too high) of our economy is based on consumer spending-- which is us buying crap.  If you have not watched the videos on Thestoryofstuff.com, you need to. Also, our country spends too much and has been since the end of World War II.

So we have again raised the debt ceiling and politicians have made a big deal about reducing FUTURE spending increases-- NOT actually balancing expenses with revenues at any point.  Of course, we cannot blame Obama since he came into office during two wars and at the start of the financial collapse.  George Bush lead our country during a difficult time and had to defend us after we were attacked, locate weapons of mass destruction, and build democracy in the middle east.  Whatever, I am not a republican or democrat and the last two sentences probably upset both.  Let me continue, so Bush moved into office with a surplus budget and a few year without increasing expenses the debt would have been paid off (yeah, not sure if anyone remembers that).  Of course we were attacked and we had to respond (but hold off- cause we are still going backwards).  Now Clinton left office with that huge budget surplus so he looks golden other than his half ass attempts to get Bin Laden.  Of course we now know that large corporations may have also been cooking the books and the internet bubble was a part of that upswing.  Value on paper as opposed to real value as at least an equal part of the upswing.  Part was real value as the internet and other technologies have increased productivity-- a large part of why I think the next few years may be difficult but we will pull through to a better future.

So Billy C. became president as our economy was starting to recover from the short desert war and the fall of communism.  That brings us to GB I. after the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan we had an opportunity to help rebuild.  And we didn't take that opportunity.  And yes, I am taking this from seeing Charlie Wilson's War (Widescreen). Now this is a gross over-simplication, but the point is until to put politics aside and work towards real solutions while also realizing that we are all in this together.  Politics has not been about making progress or succeeding it has become making the other team lose.  We are far from a solution and I certainly can't foresee a definitive path.  Here is what I do know.  We need basic ideals.  Right now most people want to return to business as usual and most of the things have been done to add to the walls of a system with a crumbling foundation.  The top banks are getting bigger.  We need them to be smaller. (actually someone posted this earlier today on facebook: http://moveyourmoneyproject.org/) and this idea of "too big to fail" is garbage.  What it really is the Powers that be cannot accept the idea of a world where they do fail.  My response is misquoting Titanic "I assure you sir, she is made of iron-- she will sink".  We are within a system requires unsustainable growth and the momentum is increasing while its ability to change is decreasing.  The question I believe is can we change the system before it reaches that tipping point.  I believe we need to follow some fundamentals and start small.

Accidental Inventions: turning a problem into a solution.

This CNN article details a teenage invent who is working a true solution to a standard problem of the kudzu menace.

teen.scientist.kudzu.killer

I especially love that his experiment started out as a way to grow food on Mars.  What is basic, but also fundamental is how he is using trial an error to progress-- discussed in my post yesterday.  Starting out by using kudzu as a food source on Mars--what harms kudzu-- unique way to kill kudzu (Helium)-- developing skills -- also using kudzu as a food source. 

I have a real feeling we will be hearing more from Jacob Schindler in the future.

Well done, sir...

Debt ceiling- Bottom line

As much as I should avoid politics, this entire debt ceiling debate can be summed up quickly:  Without raising revenue or lowering expenses we are pushing the problem off to the next generation (and we have been for generations).  This is actually a big part of The Watchman's Rattle: Thinking Our Way Out of Extinction root cause of the failure of ancient Romans, Mayans, and Khmer civilizations failed.  Of course, we may be reaching the tipping point when the system collapses.


That's all the big money. That's where it is. It's not in some mythical waste fraud abuse. The bulk of the money is in Social Security, Medicare, the military, interest on the debt.--- “Fareed Zakaria GPS”

TED: Trial, Error, and the God Complex

This is the TED talk I watched that inspired my last post.  This speech is interated with The Watchman's Rattle: Thinking Our Way Out of Extinction. I still need to give my indepth review but Rebecca Costa talks about our hidden biases called "super-mems", things we believe to be true- but may in fact be false.  Watch and let me know what you think.  I will make an effort to write more later.

TED: Ideas Worth Spreading (Technology, Entertainment, and Design

We live in a time of ever increasing complexity and the rate of the increase in complexity is also increasing. We need to eliminate our false beliefs and biases to solve the critical problems we face if we are to survive.




If you have never heard of www.ted.com, I strongly encourage you to check it out. Technology, Entertainment and Design is a nonprofit devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading that has been around since 1984. TED endeavors to bring together the world’s most fascinating thinkers. They provide all the talks for free on the website, and you can speak about anything.



If we are going to solve the ever increasing complexity of the problems we are facing as a society we will need to share our knowledge and work together to eliminate our ingrained basis to reach the truth.



I will be posting links to TED talks I find especially important as well as my own comments on those talks.



Always feel free to email, contact, comment on this blog about TED talks or any websites that give information on any of the varied subject I discuss in this blog or that you think I should check out.

To making sense,

Thanks, Frank.

Personal Statement- Why I am a reliability engineer

1. What are your reasons for undertaking graduate study at the University of Maryland? Indicate, if appropriate, any specific areas of research interest. You may wish to discuss past work in your intended field and allied fields, your plans for a professional career, or how you developed your interest in or knowledge of your chosen subject.


2. What life experiences you have had that you feel have prepared you to pursue a graduate degree at a large, diverse institution such as the University of Maryland? Among the items you might care to include would be your financial, community and family background, whether you are the first person in your family to pursue a higher education, or any other factors that you feel would contribute to the diversity of our academic community. You may also wish to give the graduate admissions committee some examples of your determination to pursue your goals, your initiative and ability to develop ideas, and /or your capacity for working through problems independently.

I am very excited to be applying to the University of Maryland’s online graduate program for the reliability engineering program. I graduated from Poly NYU in 1997 with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Aerospace Engineering. I have worked as a NASA contractor for thirteen years and I have spent the last eleven years working within the Safety and Mission Assurance Office on numerous programs within safety, risk and reliability. I feel that this is the right time to further my education in reliability engineering. I work as a Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (RAMS) engineer and the University of Maryland’s program is a perfect fit, which will allow me to pursue a graduate degree in my desired field, while working full-time. I am particularly interested in researching Common Clause Failure. I am familiar with the University of Maryland and particularly Dr. Ali Mosleh. I cherish the opportunity to study directly with him and the rest of the faculty of the University of Maryland. Working with a well developed and regarded university will allow me to hone my engineering insight.

Given the increasing complexity in the world and the required high technology to serve society’s needs there is a dire need for advances in reliability engineering. Two noteworthy and high profile failure events, specifically the British Petroleum oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the nuclear meltdown in Japan after the tsunami, prompted the decision to be made in favor of high risk solutions and new safety standards which must be enforced. These were both low-probability events and society is moving toward more complexity and more technology which will offer solutions to high risk events. I have already dedicated most of my adult life to studying, quantifying, mitigating and preventing high risk events. Reliability engineering is a field that can and should be applied to most areas, but is included only as forced by government requirement. As this field grows and its applications multiply I aspire to ensure reliability is considered an integral part of any successful human endeavor.

As Feynman said, “you can’t fool mother nature”. Most of the time, risks are misrepresented or misunderstood. Clarity or transparency is an important feature. Too often reliability analyses are lacking realistic numbers and are therefore ignored (they are either too high or too low). There are too few practitioners with a formal education in reliability. This is a case where a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Very quickly the straight forward reliability calculations diverge from practical consideration.



Reliability and safety are done separately independently of performance and cost because it is seen as a detriment to programs. I believe that the only launch vehicle with 100% reliability is the one that doesn’t launch.



“Failure is not an option, it is a reality.” I hear this term quoted a lot within the industry. I feel people misinterpret its meaning, especially in regards to low probability events. In my experience performance or cost considerations are given more regard than safety or reliability estimations. Two clear examples come to mind, both occurring during the Ares I Upper Stage program within the last few years.



Reliability is cheap, failure is expensive. The main problems are hidden costs and human nature. By nature people will pay a lot more for a cure than for prevention. The old adage might be “an ounce of prevention” is worth a pound of cure, but very few adhere to this. America and the world need passionate and dedicated reliability engineers with the ability to communicate and fight for disclosure of the risk existing all around the world.



A lot of theoretical discussions occur about the positives and negatives of choices within our complex world. We have also become a “sound bite” culture where PowerPoint bullet points simplify the nuances of complex issues. Now is the time for practical solutions to the root causes and no more grand standing or sound bite, bulleted answers that grossly over-simplify complex nuanced situations.



My father was a baker and grew up in Germany after World War II. I have relatives in Germany that are engineers and my father had amazing practical construction skills with no formal training. I have always been geared towards science and engineering. I truly enjoy working within the reliability field and I have spent a lot of my free time learning and studying reliability theories. I truly enjoy math and performing complex analysis.



I was in high school when I knew I wanted to be an engineer. I remember discussing with my father all the problems in the world. My father was a simple, practical man. After detailing what I thought were insurmountable issues, from global warming or running out of oil to nuclear war, my father responded with a simple “the engineers will figure it out”. I remember being very worried at the time. I have thought back many times to the faith my father put in “our engineers” and I have had the pleasure and honor to work with some of the best engineers on some of the most advanced engineering projects in the world. I work at all times to be worthy of the faith that my father and many other people put in engineers. I remember hearing or reading a definition of an engineer as being “someone who uses math and science to solve society’s problem”. This reinforced my longing to be an engineer.

I would like to thank you for considering my application and taking the time to read my personal statement. I truly look forward to beginning my graduate study at the University of Maryland.

Give blood—its good for you and good for others

I believe that are we progress in knowledge we will keep rediscovering ancient knowledge. We now have tools that allow us to share knowledge and move closer to the Truth. I will blog more on this topic later (Pyramid of Truth), but right now I would like to speak on the subject for health. In systems theory all things affect all other things in unpredictable ways.

In The 4 Hour Body book, link, he mentions that give blood regular may have additional health benefits, especially for men (women’s menstrual cycle may have a similar effect) since blood have hold toxins that are introduced to the body. The ancients Greeks believed in the balance of the four fluids of the body. And during the dark ages “Blood letting” was a common practice as a cure for a variety of aliments. And during the industrial revolutions till now it was considered barbaric and ignorant. Now we are relearning that maybe there weren’t too wrong.

The bottom line is donate blood is good for the overall society. You might save a life. In addition there are other reasons and it might be healthier for you to give blood. Yes, there are stories about getting infected during blood donation, but I for one believe it to be safe.

The Save-a-blade

Ok, so we live in a disposable society and not only should it change, not only must it change, but eventually it will change. The real question is how bad things get before it does.

I recommend everyone take a look at:
thestoryofstuff.com


Enough preaching. An easy choice to improve things if you shave is the save-a-blade, check the link to the right to get it on amazon.  I have also seen them at Walgreens in the as-seen-on-tv section.

It sharpens razor blades (and those things are expensive!).

I have had mine for two years now. I would actually buy a higher end one is one was available. I changed the battery once.
I use it with the mach 3.


Gillette Mach3 Cartridge 12-Count, actually looks like that are cheaper on amazon.com than anywhere else I have seen them.

Beware though: some disposable razors work better than others. I use a Mach 3.

The four blade disposables have a clear wrapping or something you have to remove which is an additional pain. I have always had good results.

Now, nothing compares to a fresh new blade, but that lasts one or two shares at most at least for me. I have gone through 2 blades in the last 2+ years. Compared to getting maybe a full week without using the Save a Blade Automatic Razor Sharpener. Actually, I recently started growing my beard out- the best solution for me at least.

It seems like a little thing, but until we start with these little changes we are never going to get to the big changes than are necessary for our future.

A Standing Desk

So I have been reading a lot on different blogs about standing desks and then I saw this “sitting is killing you“ that I found on John Durant’s blog hunter-gatherer.com. One of the comments correct stated that link between increased sitting and weight gain is a correlation and not a causation, but I believe it is quite clear that standing has many benefits to sitting, if you are fit enough and physically able to do it. Also, recent studies have shown that diet is more key to weight loss (fat loss) and that exercise is actually more for maintain weight (preventing) gain.

I will repeat the fact that our obesity epidemic here in America (and the world is following us) is a systemic problem. Yes, our food is a factor and our hectic lifestyles. And while we each do have personal responsibility it is still a system problem that has system solutions.

I think that it is obvious that many of our health problems are related to the reduction in physical activity and for complete health we all should get a good amount of regular activity. Something John Durant mentions is being physical not just for good health but also for survival. While we have (opposite of chronic) for chronic health dangers- there may be instantance when we are confronted with an immediate physical danger. Since everyone here in New York is talking about the world ending in a few days who knows what is in store for us.

I have been thinking of switching to a standing desk for the last few weeks and the above link prompted me to take the plunge. It took me about 5 minutes to move my laptop to a shelf at stomach height and figure out how to re-configure Windows to position my laptop and desktop screen. So that was easy. It also helps that I can convert back quickly.


I spent about 6 hours total standing when I would normally be mostly sitting. I felt good and energized. I still made my run that night. I ran two miles instead of my normal three, but it was raining intensely. I had heard at my barefoot meetup.com that running barefoot in the rain might cause blisters, but I didn’t have a problem. I thought it might be too cold as it was in the mid to low sixties, but that was also not a problem.


I am now on my second day and I made it from 6:30am to about 9:30am until I had to sit. The main benefit of my simple conversation is how quickly I can change back and forth as needed. I sat for an hour and then felt the “need” to stand again. I made it until lunch and sat for while eat. I am back standing at my desk and feeling fitter.

I will share about this again next week.

Type of Bias to keep in mind when discussing data

In all the conference rooms at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) they have a poster listing common types of Bias:


Wishful thinking

- “hope is not a management tool”

Group think
- “I hate conflict”


Status Quo Bias
- Ever heard “we’ve not had a problem before”

Overconfidence Bias
- “We’ve always been successful in the past”


Currency Bias
- “We remember recent events and forget history”


Confirming Evidence Bias
- “I’ve read smoking doesn’t cause cancer”


Anchoring Bias
- The first information we receive gets more weight


Sunk Cost Bias
- “But look at the money we’ve already spent”

Just something to keep in mind.