Thursday, August 4, 2011

Hark's rule #2: the rule of the not so obvious

If a rare event occurs with no warning or no prediction beforehand and after the fact there appear to be many factors that seem to make prognosis of future events obvious always remember than it was not obvious.  It should be an indication for us to give pause for the possibility of inconceivable events.

Whenever these rare or "low probability" events occur we then fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we do and then assume another event cannot occur or that we have learned from the mistakes of the past.  The real lesson is we should spend more time on prevention.  Yes, I am a reliability engineer so I realize I am biased.
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